Uber forecasting, the 10pm NHC moved way south for Dolly

Wow, just looking over the latest data for Tropical Storm Dolly and if the forecast track keeps to where I think it was going to go this morning (Monday) then I will be uber forecasting. 

Here is the 10 PM forecast graphic from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Dolly forecast 7/21/2008

I have been watching the storm on Vis and Shortwave Sat today and watching it move to the west at around 16-18 (17) miles per hour and stay only at a 50 miles per hour tropical storm force.

Here is my forecast, if Tropical Storm Dolly keeps it’s due west track, it’s going to be a major bust for anyone chasing the storm.  With no real jump in the center of circulation wind speed and a fast ground track, Tropical Storm Dolly is going to be making landfall a lot faster then expected and in Mexico.    However, Dolly is expected to slow it’s forward speed and build during the overnight according to some of the computer models but I just don’t trust them. 

My Gut Forecast says, Mexico.  It’s still July and there is still several months of hurricane season left.  Were not even in the prime which comes in September.  I can wait for a better setup and use Dolly to refine my forecasting skills on the latest computer model updates for this season.