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Yes the hurricane Ike intercept is still on hold.  What? Why have I not booked a flight and filed a claim for my piece of the Hurricane Ike gold mine. 

Well, simple, there is one small problem and that is that hurricane Ike is small and heading for an area south of Houston that is rural at best with no real access to the coast.  The storm is still small and trying to reform and people are trying to compare it to Katrina.  Also, no real safe place to intercept and it will probably be coming in at night. Not much to see with Hurricanes at night.

Well, let’s compare it to Katrina.  In the image below we have the classic hurricane satellite photo on the left which is Hurricane Katrina from 2005 and now Hurricane Ike from today.  Look at the size of Katrina based off the tip of the gulf coast of Mexico vs the size of Ike. 

Now lets look at the fact that Katrina had a Monster sized well defined eye on her and Ike, well, it has something but it’s not very well defined.  Katrina had the classic Buzz Saw look to her where as Ike, um not yet up to Katrina like form or strength.

Don’t get me wrong, I have several flight options and I’ll be out the door asap and on a flight if the storm looks better in the morning but right now it is not saying WOW to me.

The big question is, where is the eye?  If you look at the Katrina image above and the Ike Image, where is Ike’s Eye? 

Now lets look at the forecasts.  Yesterday the storm was forecasted to be making landfall around the Brownsville area along the USA and Mexico boarder.  Now the latest GFDL forecast shows it could hit Houston.  The forward speed of the storm has slowed down now to seven miles per hour from eight and the storm has not gone above 100 miles per hour.   Below is the 7pm NHC forecast which shows the storm making a dreaded night landfall in the middle of pretty much rural areas of the Texas Coast.

And here is the 11pm forecast from NHC that show’s it is still 100 miles per hour and still moving in the same northwest direction but now there is a twist.  The twist is that it could now get caught by the system coming out of the Midwest and turn to the north and hit southwest of Houston TX during the overnight hours on Friday and Saturday and that is a problem.

The problem is, will it make the last minute turn to the north between 7pm and 7am on Friday?  Will Ike slow down more to make it a daytime landfall on Saturday and will Ike make it further north to hit along coast where you can’t get within 20 miles of the coastline with a tiny eye of a hurricane to try and intercept.

Too many thing’s telling me not to go because the number one factor is that if it hit’s at night, you won’t be able to see anything to shoot video of and that means I wont be able to get video of anything that is worth selling.

The trip is still up in the air so I may take off in the next 24 hours to chase Ike but too many things tell me to wait it out at home. 

Plus, I have a ton of work to do here for clients so with my stringers going out their to chase the storm, BNVN will still have people out their to cover it, I just fear their may not be anything to cover.  Time to get some sleep and see what is happening in the morning with Ike.

Okay, it is 130 in the morning.  I should be in bed but I’m not because I’m looking at booking travel plans and forecasts for Hurricane Ike which just earlier today was considered a bust since it was suppose to go to Mexico…  Um yeah.  Well Ike departed Cuba but now the forward speed has dropped big time. 

What does this mean?  Well the forward speed was what I thought was going to make Ike travel faster and into the west and avoid the front moving down from the Midwest that was going to pick it up.  Now Ike is moving west north west at 7 miles per hour which is at least half the speed it was moving at in the previous several days. 

So, now the computer models and forecasts are all being tossed up into the air with no real point of landfall for Ike yet other then somewhere along the Texas Gulf Coast during the overnight on Friday and Saturday.

Which brings up the next problem.  The storm is going to hit during the overnight hour’s per NHC and per several computer models and hit in a place where there is not much to hit around Palacios Texas.  So do I book up a flight, hotel and rental car and head down to Texas only to get into an area that will see the worst of the storm during the overnight hours where I won’t see much of anything in the first place, or do I stay home and work on several client orders for footage of stuff I already have?

The question is, do I try for the money shot in Texas with a high chance of it being a bust and a ton of Yahoo chaser’s from OK and TX showing up to make it even more of a pain in the ass or do I stay home and work on projects that I know will pay the bills?   Oh well, at least there is 6 more good weeks of hurricane chasing where there could be better storms.  I just don’t feel like chasing a hurricane in the middle of a cattle ranch.

Yes, I said it, is Ike Heading for Mexico?  Looking at the latest GFDL computer model, the hurricane Ike intercept may be put on hold or might be dead for now.

Below is the 96 hour GFDL forecast model showing Ike is going to strike just at the boarder of Mexico and Texas and if the current westward trends continue Ike may end up heading south of the boarder.

Now granted this is just a computer model and there are several computer models for forecasting hurricanes.  The problem is now they are all starting to show the same movement for Ike towards the USA and Mexico boarder.

The latest 2PM forecast from the NHC now shows an even more west jump to Ike.

And the Radar from Cuba shows that Ike took a beating from it’s run along the length of Cuba but it did not drop below Cat 1 Hurricane status.  This means that if Ike can make it off the island of Cuba back into the Gulf, it may end up being yet another surprise for everyone.

So, what is in store for Hurricane Ike?  I don’t know to be honest.  I want to chase one more hurricane this season but it costs several thousand to get everything geared up and in place to chase the hurricanes and with the chance of the storm moving off into Mexico, I just don’t know if it will be worth it.  I talked to Chris today who pretty much said he is going to blow this storm off too.  The main reason is the size of the storm.  The center where the worst of the worst will be is tiny and all you need is a 15 -20 mile shift in the track forecast to make it into a extreme chase or into a waste of time.   Unless something happens in the next 24 hour’s, this is not looking like something that will be worth chasing.  Back to waiting and watching.

Okay, Ike intercept looking less and less of an option if it keeps moving west.  Per the 11pm NHC forecast, the forecast track shifted way to the west now where NOLA is not even in the target zone.

But, the latest computer models show that the hurricane could even end up in Mexico.  I don’t like to use forecast models more then 72 hours out but here is the latest from SFW.

As I talked about with Hurricane Dolly, this area is no mans land in South Texas.  Not a bad area except a bad area to chase.  The area is known in chasing as the King Ranch which is the largest ranch in the United States at 825,000 acres or 1289 square miles.

So if the chase target moves any further to the south, it is pretty much going to be a tough call to see if I go on the chase for Ike. 

Still alive, just a quick update on the Hurricane Gustav Chase.  The Crew and I chased Gustav yesterday and made it down to Houma LA for the eye of the storm.  The storm was not as strong as forecasted but we were still able to get a lot of great content.

So Houma got hit pretty bad and the area around Grand Isle is really messed up but due to the downed trees and flooding I could not get that far south to intercept the storm when it was at it’s strongest as it made landfall.

I posted a video YouTube for the blog video.

Time to go back to work in front of the camera and then get ready to go back home tomorrow to Minnesota as Hanna is not looking that good for a chase. If Hanna looks better in the morning then I will head over to the east coast for her tomorrow.

Also anyone looking for Gustav footage, I shot most of it on XDCam HQ HD format with some of it using an underwater HDV camera.

Okay, no graphics to show and no photo’s.  Just Hella tired but working here.  I’m in Kenner, LA now and I moved the crew and myself yesterday to the same hotel that I stayed at in Katrina.  The hotel has a massive backup system for power that powers everything except for the rooms.  So that means I am in the dark right now.

Yep, we just lost power but I was out filming the power flashes that from the transformers being knocked out.  I’m already to go with the wet suit on so if I get wet, oh well…  But it worked out perfect because as soon as the power went, I was helping the owner of the hotel to get the backup power system on line.

Time to take a nap and then go chase the  core of Gustav at sunrise. 

I just got back in from shooting a ton of footage around New Orleans of the last minute prep work that is being done.  There are more police on the street then I have ever seen.  This place is a police convention!!!

I’m looking at the latest data and I’m a bit concerned after looking at the latest GFDL and HWRF forecast model runs.  They show that Gustav is going to be a strong storm and then die right as it moves over land.  Here is the 11pm NHC forecast track showing the storm is a Strong Cat 4 with winds of 140 MPH.

Now here is the 2AM NHC forecast map that shows the storm has lost some strength since the last update.

Notice that the track keeps moving more and more to the east now compared to yesterday.  I have a feeling that the cone may shift more towards the LA and MS boarder area.  I think were going to be in for a surprise with this forecast by this time tomorrow. 

Off to get some sleep now for a few hours.

I spent the day shooting ton’s of footage on the new camera I have been testing out.  It’s the HD Sony EX1 XDCam tapeless setup and the Underwater setup on the other camera. 

For most of the day I scouted out the area around New Orleans and it is going to be insane when this storm hits.  This place is in a state of panic but it is in a controlled panic.  Controlled as in everyone is getting out of here and the evacuation is already started with tons of people leaving.  My evacuation forecast for NOLA is their will be more law enforcement then people in the region when the storm hits. 

And now on to the storm.

Here is the latest NHC forecast track for Hurricane Gustav and the track is shifting east more and more.

Yes, that is correct, the winds are 150 miles per hour and it is heading almost straight for me.  The good news, I’m here and their won’t be very many other chasers here due to the fact that the Police and National Guard are booting everyone out.  The bad news is that we may be stuck here for a while.

Here is the latest visible satellite images before sunset.  Gustav has a very well defined eye on it and it made a direct hit on the Isle of Youth in Cuba and is now slamming into western Cuba during the overnight hours as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. 

In all honesty, nobody knows were this storm will hit.  Just look at all the computer models below.  This thing could end up hitting Florida still. 

Ok, time to get some rest before I go back out and do it all over again.

Never in my wildest nightmares did I ever think I would be back in New Orleans for a hurricane and get here on the day of the three year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina for Hurricane Gustav.

Right now were just west of New Orleans and when I say we, I mean me and the boys from the TV crew.  Jared is back out for the chase along with some new friends and that homeless guy we picked up in Colorado back in June. 

Where will Hurricane Gustav hit?  That is the 64 Million Dollar Question friends.  The computer models are saying somewhere in the Gulf between Gulfport and Houston. 

Right now NHC current track has it centered on the area just west of New Orleans.

So it looks like the worst of the storm sure and the worst of the flooding could be heading this way with the worst of the winds heading towards the area just to the SW of New Orleans…

Oh Wait that is the center track, New Orleans is in the middle of the right side of the Three Day Cone. 

What does that mean?  That my friend’s tells me that NOLA could get this thing with a head on hit.  How many hurricanes hit and turned to the right at the last minute? Um yeah, most of them do in the Gulf.  Even that last thing, TS Fay turned to the right at the last minute.  Charley did in 2004 and so did Katrina and Rita.  I have a feeling I may be seeing the eye of Katrina in the worst spot possible.

If your not in here by now, your not getting into this town.  New Orleans is pretty much on a lock down with St. Charles Parish being locked down this morning.  I just heard the last flight out will be at 6PM today and the Contra Flow will start up today as well.

The good thing about this storm is Katrina woke up everyone and this time everyone is ready, well almost everyone.  The people are still partying on the street in the French Quarter but most are saying they are leaving ASAP. 

I have all the supplies I need to last me for a week so I am good to go.   I just hope that Hurricane Hanna does not come in while I’m still dealing with Hurricane Gustav.  This could be an active 2 weeks.

Did I make a mistake or did I make the right decision?

It’s 2:30 in the morning (Central Time) and I’m watching the radar out of Key West that show’s Tropical Storm Fay moving into Marco Island Florida. 

The reason I question if I made the right decision now is because the storm is looking much better on radar.  But and that BUT is for you Ryan since you hate it when I say BUT, But this was not the case last night.

24 hour’s ago, NHC had forecasted TS Fay to be coming in as Hurricane Fay into the Tampa & St. Pete area of Florida.  Here is the 2:00 AM forecast from NHC from last night.

As you can see in the forecast track above and the previous blogs, it looked like the storm was going to turn into a hurricane and hit Tampa in about 5 hours from now, BUT (just for you Ryan) that is not the case now as the Radar graphic above shows it making landfall just south of Naples Florida in the Marco Island area.

Just 24 hour’s ago, I was booking a flight to Tampa that would have left at ten in the morning and I would have been in Tampa by three in the afternoon to intercept what I thought was going to be Hurricane Fay. 

So why did I bail on the trip at the last minute?  Simple really, I just said a prayer and asked for a second opinion and not more then a few minutes later, Blake Michaleski, one of my friends and hurricane chase partners calls me up and said “Dude, have you seen the radar out of Cuba?” 

I was watching it but thought it was looking a little strange with the movement at first but when he saw the same thing I saw, it confirmed my worst fear, the storm sped up an the track shifted east and Fay was now heading almost straight north.  We talked about how the center of the storm looked as if it jumped out of the center of the cone from NHC that is posted above the radar image. 

So this spooked me because I knew if the storm busted ass north, it would not have the time it needed to grow into a storm that was worth chasing with the cost of flying into the area at the last minute. 

I watched Fay during the day and was on standby for now-casting for the stringers we do have in the area.  Hell I was even ready to get on a late flight into Tampa this afternoon and still fly down if the forecast would have changed but it did not.  TS Fay did not gain any strength and when it hit Key West Florida, it was still a 60 MPH Tropical Storm. 

I was ready to go but Fay just did not look like a storm that was worth chasing on Radar unless you already lived there.  Above in the radar image from around five in the afternoon, there was no real eye of the storm but a rag tag mess of a center of the storm.

Now Tropical Storm Fay is actually making landfall as I write this blog.  I just talked to my other chase partner Chris Collura who is on Marco Island right now and he said there is a lot of rain and wind but with it being a night he can see some stuff but as he put it “It’s Dark, And I Can’t See Anything Worth Getting Video Of Yet”.  The latest radar image as I type is this.

Now did I make a mistake by not going to intercept Tropical Storm Fay?

Nope, I think I made the right call.  I have Brian covering this and Chris is covering it as and their both top guns at what they do.  The storm is still not a hurricane with the latest report from Naples

Naples Municipal

03:53

Light Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy

76

76

100

NE 22 G 32

29.49

Look’s like I chose wisely…